DURBAN – In the fluid and often contradictory world of South African politics, the adage “there are no permanent enemies, only permanent interests” has rarely rung truer. In a dramatic twist that could redefine the balance of power in KwaZulu-Natal, the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP) has extended an olive branch to its parent-turned-rival, the African National Congress (ANC).
The MKP, led by former President Jacob Zuma, has formally invited the ANC to join discussions aimed at forming a new coalition government in the province. The invitation, addressed to ANC Secretary General Fikile Mbalula, KwaZulu-Natal Provincial Convener Jeff Radebe, and Coordinator Mike Mabuyakhulu, signals a potential realignment that could threaten the stability of the current Government of Provincial Unity (GPU).
In a statement released late on Monday, the MKP confirmed it has already been engaged in high-level talks with the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and the National Freedom Party (NFP) to map out a new governance framework for the province. The next round of these discussions, to which the ANC is now formally invited, is scheduled for 7 March 2026.
“These discussions are ongoing and form part of the efforts to establish a stable, inclusive and effective governance framework for the province,” the MKP statement read. “In the spirit of cooperation and inclusive political engagement, we hereby formally invite the African National Congress (ANC) to participate in these discussions.”
A Move Rooted in Realpolitik
At first glance, an MKP-ANC coalition seems counterintuitive. The MKP was formed by staunch Zuma loyalists who broke away from the ANC, partly in protest against the Ramaphosa administration’s perceived persecution of the former president. The two parties have been locked in bitter public spats, with the MKP positioning itself as the true heir of the liberation struggle legacy, often at the ANC’s expense.
However, political analysts suggest that the invitation is a masterstroke of realpolitik. The MKP, which emerged as a major force in KZN in last year’s elections, is desperate to wield executive power. Currently, the province is led by Premier Thami Ntuli of the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), who heads a multi-party coalition that includes the ANC, the DA, and the NFP.
“If the MKP can peel the ANC away from the current GPU and bring them into a new coalition alongside the EFF and the NFP, they would fundamentally alter the mathematics of the provincial legislature,” said political analyst Professor Sipho Seepe. “It would effectively isolate the IFP and create a new radical block controlling the province.”
The NFP Factor and the Shinga Dilemma
The MKP’s strategy hinges significantly on the fate of one person: Mbali Shinga, the NFP’s sole Member of the Provincial Legislature (MPL), who currently serves as the MEC for Social Development in the IFP-led GPU.
The political intrigue surrounding Shinga is thick. During the first motion of no confidence against Premier Ntuli tabled by the MKP in December, the party had hoped Shinga would vote with them, giving the opposition block the numbers needed to oust the Premier. However, Shinga defied her party’s instruction, voting to keep Ntuli in power and causing the motion to fall flat.
This act of defiance has placed Shinga at the center of a political storm. The NFP has initiated disciplinary proceedings against her, arguing that her vote violated the party’s resolution to withdraw from the GPU. If found guilty, she could face expulsion, which would technically strip the NFP of its seat in the legislature.
However, a legal wrangle has complicated matters. NFP leadership previously wrote to the Speaker of the Provincial Legislature, Nontembeko Boyce, requesting Shinga’s removal from her MEC position. Speaker Boyce rejected the request, ruling that Shinga’s suspension from party activities did not meet the constitutional threshold for removal from the legislature, as she remains a member of the party until her membership is formally terminated.
The Calculus of the 7 March Meeting
The outcome of the 7 March meeting will likely depend on the resolution of the Shinga impasse and the ANC’s strategic calculations.
For the ANC, the decision is fraught with risk. Joining a coalition with the MKP and EFF would give them a share of power in KZN but would likely alienate their national leadership under President Cyril Ramaphosa, who has been the target of relentless MKP attacks. It could also destabilize the national Government of National Unity (GNU), of which the ANC is a key pillar alongside the DA.
For the MKP, securing the ANC’s participation would be a monumental coup. It would legitimize their presence in formal governance structures and deliver a devastating blow to the IFP, the ANC’s traditional rival in the province.
What’s Next?
The ball is now in the ANC’s court. The party’s provincial leadership in KZN, led by Jeff Radebe, will have to weigh the benefits of provincial power against the potential national political fallout. A formal response to the MKP’s invitation is expected before the proposed 7 March meeting.
As the clock ticks down, the people of KwaZulu-Natal watch with bated breath. In a province where political allegiances shift like the sands of the Indian Ocean coastline, the only certainty is that the current Government of Provincial Unity is facing its most serious test yet.
About The Author
