South Africa is staring down a severe economic blow, with the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) warning that new US tariffs will cut economic growth and lead to the loss of approximately 40,000 jobs in 2026.
The crisis stems from the United States’ decision in August 2025 to impose tariffs of up to 30% on South African exports, effectively ending the country’s preferential trade access under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). The Reserve Bank’s latest review reveals that about two-thirds of South Africa’s exports to the US now face these levies.
The automotive and manufacturing sectors, which employ hundreds of thousands, are among the hardest hit. A 25% tariff on vehicle exports—higher than what key competitors face—threatens the viability of a R35 billion industry. Similarly, a 30% tariff on agricultural products puts local farmers at a severe disadvantage against rivals in South America.
The SARB’s modelling indicates the tariffs could reduce the country’s GDP growth by 0.4 percentage points, a significant chunk of the already modest forecast. While the overall macroeconomic impact may seem “modest,” the sectoral damage is severe, with 22,000 jobs set to be lost directly from the tariffs and a further 18,000 from knock-on effects. The warning paints a stark picture of an economy losing vital foreign exchange earnings and facing rising unemployment without a clear path to replace the lost trade.
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