The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has warned that South Africa is already experiencing an El Niño event, with the 2026/27 season developing into an unusually strong event in both timing and magnitude.
The warning was issued during a media conference held on Friday, 18 September, where SAWS and representatives from weather-sensitive sectors discussed preparedness plans for the expected El Niño conditions.
According to Professor Willem Landman from the University of Pretoria, the current El Niño has emerged unusually early, with forecasts indicating that it could become a strong event. He said the rate of Niño-3.4 warming is also highly unusual, with current observations suggesting the event could reach a magnitude not previously seen in the instrumental record.
Forecasts from the University of Pretoria’s CSIRMiMM system and international CSCR-IRI multi-model ensemble indicate that El Niño could peak during late 2026 or early 2027.
However, SAWS has cautioned that a strong El Niño does not automatically mean that every part of southern Africa will experience a uniformly dry season. The weather service says the actual impacts will depend on regional and seasonal forecasts, particularly as the 2026/27 summer rainfall season develops.
SAWS’ latest seasonal outlook points to an increased probability of below-normal rainfall across the South African region towards mid-summer. At the same time, very high probabilities of above-normal temperatures are expected across all three-month forecasting periods.
The weather service has urged communities and sectors such as agriculture and disaster management to prepare for the possible impacts of the developing El Niño, while continuing to monitor updated seasonal rainfall and temperature forecasts.
SAWS says the magnitude of the current El Niño should not, on its own, be viewed as a direct indication of how severe its impacts will be across South Africa.
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